Emerging Tech Horizons: What's Next After Today's AIHow to evaluate emerging technology · Lesson 2 of 16
An emerging-tech evaluation scorecard
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An emerging-tech evaluation scorecard
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0:00 An evaluation scorecard
When a new technology hits the leadership agenda, the conversation usually swings between excitement and scepticism depending on who spoke last. In this lesson you'll get a scorecard that asks the same eight questions every time, a research prompt that uses AI to speed up the homework, and a way to run the scoring session so the loudest voice doesn't win.
0:27 Eight dimensions
Here are the eight dimensions, each scored one to five with a short justification and a source. Problem fit: does it solve a costly, frequent problem we already have? Technical maturity: is it proven in contexts like ours? Ecosystem readiness: vendors, standards, talent. Economics: a clear cost per outcome at our scale. Risk and regulation. Reversibility: can we pilot and exit easily? Strategic value. And internal readiness: do we have the data, the skills and an accountable owner?
1:01 Why it matters
Why does this matter? Because technology decisions are increasingly made by groups under time pressure, often after a persuasive demo. Without a shared structure, the conversation follows whoever is most senior, most excited or most sceptical. Good ideas get killed for the wrong reasons, and weak ideas get funded because they sounded exciting. A scorecard gives everyone the same questions, makes disagreements visible, and leaves a record you can learn from. It also protects you later, when someone asks why did we invest in this? You'll have the answer, with sources.
1:41 The pre-flight checklist
Here's an analogy. A scorecard is like a pilot's pre-flight checklist. Experienced pilots don't skip it because they're confident. They use it because confidence is exactly when people miss things. The checklist doesn't fly the plane, and your scorecard doesn't make the decision. It makes sure the same critical questions get asked every time, whoever happens to be in the room.
2:08 Simple example: meeting transcription
A simple example with just three dimensions. You're considering AI meeting transcription for a ten-person agency. Problem fit: five, because everyone hates writing notes. Maturity: five, because it's widely used in production. Risk: three, because client calls need consent and some clients are in regulated industries. The pattern says pilot, but with a consent process and an opt-out for sensitive clients. Three scores and a pattern turned a vague yes into a specific plan.
2:40 Two unscored fields
Add two fields that aren't scored but matter just as much. First, what would change our mind? Write down the specific evidence that would move a score up or down, like two peer companies in production, or official guidance from the regulator. Second, what's the cheapest next experiment? These two lines turn a debate into a plan.
3:05 Read patterns, not totals
Now, how do you read it? Don't add up the numbers into one total, because totals hide trade-offs. Read patterns instead. High strategic value and low maturity: watch closely and run cheap experiments. High maturity, strong problem fit and easy to reverse: pilot now. Low problem fit: park it, however exciting it looks. High regulatory uncertainty: bring legal and compliance in early, and consider waiting for guidance.
3:34 AI-assisted research
AI research tools can compress days of desk research into hours. The lesson text gives you a prompt that asks for evidence on each dimension, with sources and dates, prefers primary sources like regulators and standards bodies, labels every item as fact, claim or opinion, and says no reliable evidence found rather than guessing. Notice what it doesn't ask for: a recommendation. The AI gathers. You judge.
4:03 Verify the sources
And then verify. AI research tools can misattribute sources or invent citations that look perfectly plausible. Open the key sources yourself. Check the date. Confirm the claim actually appears as described. Your scorecard is only as credible as its weakest citation, and a single fabricated source in front of a board can undo months of trust.
4:27 Running the session
Run the session in five steps. Circulate the research pack a few days early. Everyone scores independently first, so nobody anchors on the most senior voice. Discuss only the dimensions where scores differ most. Agree the scores, the what-would-change-our-mind evidence, and the next experiment with an owner and date. Then store it, and revisit in three to six months.
4:53 Worked example: AI contract review
Here's how it played out at a two-hundred-person UK law firm looking at AI contract review. Problem fit scored five, because of high volumes of NDAs and leases. Maturity four. Economics three, with unclear pricing. Risk three, because of confidentiality and professional duties. The weakest score was internal readiness: no clean clause library. So before piloting, the firm spent six weeks building that library, which improved the pilot and turned out to be valuable on its own.
5:26 Economics, carefully
Economics deserve extra care, because they're where excitement hides the most. Ask for the cost per outcome, not per licence: per document reviewed, per lead qualified, per defect caught. Include integration, training, change management and ongoing oversight. And compare against the real alternative, which is often a simpler tool or a process fix. If nobody can express the economics in one sentence, score it low until they can.
5:56 Revisit and learn
One more habit: store every scorecard and revisit it. In six months, open it again. Did the evidence you said would change your mind arrive? Did the experiment happen? Was your stage call early, right or late? That review turns scoring from a meeting ritual into a learning system, and over time your organisation gets measurably better at timing technology bets.
6:23 Three mistakes
Three common mistakes. First, summing the scores into one number, which hides the trade-off that matters, like a brilliant idea with a legal red flag. Second, letting the vendor fill in the scorecard, which is like asking a car salesperson to do your inspection. Third, scoring once and never revisiting, so you never learn whether your judgement was early, right or late.
6:50 Try this now
Try this now. Take a technology your organisation is currently debating, and fill in just four of the eight dimensions: problem fit, maturity, risk and reversibility. For each, write a score from one to five, one sentence of justification, and a source link. Then write what would change your mind. If you can't find a source for a score, mark it unknown rather than guessing. Share the half-finished scorecard with two colleagues and ask them to score independently before you compare. You'll learn more from the differences than from the numbers themselves.
7:30 Recap
To recap. Score eight dimensions with sources, add what would change your mind and the cheapest next experiment, and read patterns rather than totals. Use AI to gather and label evidence, then verify it yourself. Score independently before discussing, and revisit regularly. Your next step: run the research prompt on one technology, verify three sources, and complete the scorecard with your team. Next module: the frontier of AI itself.
From opinion to structured judgement
When a new technology lands on the leadership agenda, discussions usually swing between enthusiasm and scepticism based on who spoke last. A scorecard does not make the decision for you, but it forces the same questions every time, surfaces disagreements early and leaves a record you can learn from. This lesson gives you a practical scorecard and shows how to use AI assistants to speed up the research without outsourcing the judgement.
The scorecard: eight dimensions
Score each 1 to 5, with a one-line justification and a source for each score.
| # | Dimension | 1 means | 5 means |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Problem fit | Solution looking for a problem | Solves a costly, frequent problem we already have |
| 2 | Technical maturity | Lab demos only (low TRL) | Proven in production in contexts like ours |
| 3 | Ecosystem readiness | No suppliers, standards or skills | Mature vendors, standards, available talent |
| 4 | Economics | Unclear or only works at massive scale | Clear cost per outcome that works at our scale |
| 5 | Risk and regulation | Unclear legal status, high safety or reputational risk | Clear rules, manageable risk |
| 6 | Reversibility | Hard to exit; lock-in | Easy to pilot and exit |
| 7 | Strategic value | Nice-to-have | Changes our competitive position or protects a core business |
| 8 | Readiness inside our organisation | No data, skills or sponsor | Data, skills and an accountable owner exist |
Add two non-scored fields: "What would change our mind?" (the evidence that would move the score up or down) and "Cheapest next experiment".
Interpreting scores
Avoid adding the numbers into a single total that hides trade-offs. Instead, read patterns:
- High strategic value, low maturity → watch closely, fund research or partnerships, run cheap experiments.
- High maturity, high problem fit, reversible → pilot now.
- Low problem fit, whatever else → park it, however exciting it is.
- High risk and regulation uncertainty → involve legal and compliance early; consider waiting for guidance.
Using AI assistants for research, responsibly
AI research tools (deep-research modes in major assistants, AI search engines) can compress days of desk research into hours. Use them to gather and organise sources, not to supply the scores.
PROMPT: Research brief for an emerging technology scorecard
You are a careful research analyst. Technology: {technology}.
Context: {our industry, size, markets e.g. "mid-size retailer in UAE and KSA"}.
For each of these dimensions, list evidence with a source link and publication date:
1) production deployments in contexts similar to ours
2) cost trends
3) standards and interoperability status
4) regulation or official guidance in {markets}
5) known failures, incidents or critical assessments
Rules:
- Prefer primary sources (vendors' technical docs, regulators, standards bodies, peer-reviewed work).
- Mark each item as FACT (with source) or CLAIM (vendor/marketing) or OPINION.
- Say "no reliable evidence found" rather than guessing.
- Do not give an overall recommendation.Then verify the key sources yourself: open them, check dates, and confirm the claim appears as described. AI research tools can misattribute or fabricate citations; your scorecard's credibility depends on checking.
Running the scoring session
- Circulate the research pack a few days before.
- Each participant scores independently first (avoids anchoring on the most senior voice).
- Discuss only the dimensions with the widest disagreement.
- Agree scores, the "what would change our mind" evidence, and the next experiment with an owner and date.
- Store the scorecard; revisit in three to six months.
Worked example: a UK mid-size law firm and AI contract review
A 200-person UK firm scored AI-assisted contract review. Problem fit 5 (high-volume NDAs and leases), maturity 4 (several vendors with production customers in legal), ecosystem 4, economics 3 (pricing per seat versus volume unclear), risk 3 (professional duty, confidentiality, and SRA guidance on technology use need attention), reversibility 4, strategic value 4, internal readiness 2 (no clean clause library). The pattern pointed to a pilot, but the weakest score was internal: the firm first spent six weeks building a clause library, which improved the pilot and turned out to be useful on its own.
Pitfalls
- Summing scores into one number and ignoring the pattern.
- Letting vendors fill in the scorecard.
- Scoring once and never revisiting.
How to measure success
Track how many scorecards led to a clear decision, how often "what would change our mind" evidence actually arrived, and your hit rate on stage calls over time.
Key takeaways
- Score eight dimensions (problem fit, maturity, ecosystem, economics, risk, reversibility, strategic value, internal readiness) with sources.
- Read patterns rather than summing a total; low problem fit parks an idea regardless of excitement.
- Use AI research tools to gather and label sources as fact, claim or opinion, then verify key sources yourself.
- Score independently before discussing, record what would change your mind, and revisit every three to six months.
Check your understanding
Quick questions to lock in the lesson. They don’t count towards your certificate.
Put it into practice
Run the research prompt for one technology, verify three key sources yourself, and complete the scorecard with your team, including the cheapest next experiment.
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