Emerging Tech Horizons: What's Next After Today's AIHow to evaluate emerging technology · Lesson 2 of 16

An emerging-tech evaluation scorecard

Article · 7 min · 8 min lecture

Video lecture

An emerging-tech evaluation scorecard

16 chapters · about 8 min · full transcript

Coming soon

Chapter 1 of 16

An evaluation scorecard

  • Eight dimensions
  • Reading the patterns
  • AI-assisted research
  • Running the session

The narrated lecture is in production

Every chapter is scripted and ready. Browse the chapters and read the full transcript now — the video will appear here when it’s published.

Chapters

From opinion to structured judgement

When a new technology lands on the leadership agenda, discussions usually swing between enthusiasm and scepticism based on who spoke last. A scorecard does not make the decision for you, but it forces the same questions every time, surfaces disagreements early and leaves a record you can learn from. This lesson gives you a practical scorecard and shows how to use AI assistants to speed up the research without outsourcing the judgement.

The scorecard: eight dimensions

Score each 1 to 5, with a one-line justification and a source for each score.

#Dimension1 means5 means
1Problem fitSolution looking for a problemSolves a costly, frequent problem we already have
2Technical maturityLab demos only (low TRL)Proven in production in contexts like ours
3Ecosystem readinessNo suppliers, standards or skillsMature vendors, standards, available talent
4EconomicsUnclear or only works at massive scaleClear cost per outcome that works at our scale
5Risk and regulationUnclear legal status, high safety or reputational riskClear rules, manageable risk
6ReversibilityHard to exit; lock-inEasy to pilot and exit
7Strategic valueNice-to-haveChanges our competitive position or protects a core business
8Readiness inside our organisationNo data, skills or sponsorData, skills and an accountable owner exist

Add two non-scored fields: "What would change our mind?" (the evidence that would move the score up or down) and "Cheapest next experiment".

Interpreting scores

Avoid adding the numbers into a single total that hides trade-offs. Instead, read patterns:

  • High strategic value, low maturity → watch closely, fund research or partnerships, run cheap experiments.
  • High maturity, high problem fit, reversible → pilot now.
  • Low problem fit, whatever else → park it, however exciting it is.
  • High risk and regulation uncertainty → involve legal and compliance early; consider waiting for guidance.

Using AI assistants for research, responsibly

AI research tools (deep-research modes in major assistants, AI search engines) can compress days of desk research into hours. Use them to gather and organise sources, not to supply the scores.

PROMPT: Research brief for an emerging technology scorecard

You are a careful research analyst. Technology: {technology}.
Context: {our industry, size, markets e.g. "mid-size retailer in UAE and KSA"}.

For each of these dimensions, list evidence with a source link and publication date:
1) production deployments in contexts similar to ours
2) cost trends
3) standards and interoperability status
4) regulation or official guidance in {markets}
5) known failures, incidents or critical assessments

Rules:
- Prefer primary sources (vendors' technical docs, regulators, standards bodies, peer-reviewed work).
- Mark each item as FACT (with source) or CLAIM (vendor/marketing) or OPINION.
- Say "no reliable evidence found" rather than guessing.
- Do not give an overall recommendation.

Then verify the key sources yourself: open them, check dates, and confirm the claim appears as described. AI research tools can misattribute or fabricate citations; your scorecard's credibility depends on checking.

Running the scoring session

  1. Circulate the research pack a few days before.
  2. Each participant scores independently first (avoids anchoring on the most senior voice).
  3. Discuss only the dimensions with the widest disagreement.
  4. Agree scores, the "what would change our mind" evidence, and the next experiment with an owner and date.
  5. Store the scorecard; revisit in three to six months.

Worked example: a UK mid-size law firm and AI contract review

A 200-person UK firm scored AI-assisted contract review. Problem fit 5 (high-volume NDAs and leases), maturity 4 (several vendors with production customers in legal), ecosystem 4, economics 3 (pricing per seat versus volume unclear), risk 3 (professional duty, confidentiality, and SRA guidance on technology use need attention), reversibility 4, strategic value 4, internal readiness 2 (no clean clause library). The pattern pointed to a pilot, but the weakest score was internal: the firm first spent six weeks building a clause library, which improved the pilot and turned out to be useful on its own.

Pitfalls

  • Summing scores into one number and ignoring the pattern.
  • Letting vendors fill in the scorecard.
  • Scoring once and never revisiting.

How to measure success

Track how many scorecards led to a clear decision, how often "what would change our mind" evidence actually arrived, and your hit rate on stage calls over time.

Key takeaways

  • Score eight dimensions (problem fit, maturity, ecosystem, economics, risk, reversibility, strategic value, internal readiness) with sources.
  • Read patterns rather than summing a total; low problem fit parks an idea regardless of excitement.
  • Use AI research tools to gather and label sources as fact, claim or opinion, then verify key sources yourself.
  • Score independently before discussing, record what would change your mind, and revisit every three to six months.

Check your understanding

Quick questions to lock in the lesson. They don’t count towards your certificate.

  1. A technology scores high on strategic value but low on maturity. What does the pattern suggest?
  2. What is the right role for an AI research assistant in scorecard work?
  3. Why should participants score independently before discussing?

Put it into practice

Run the research prompt for one technology, verify three key sources yourself, and complete the scorecard with your team, including the cheapest next experiment.

Enrol for free to save your progress

Reading is always free. Enrol to keep your place, take the final assessment and earn a verifiable certificate.