Project Finance & Financial ModellingPPPs, concessions and reaching financial close · Lesson 17 of 20

Cost management and financial reporting after close

Article · 14 min · 8 min lecture

Video lecture

Cost management and financial reporting after close

9 chapters · about 8 min · full transcript

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Chapter 1 of 9

After close, the real work begins

  • Drawdowns and the cost-to-complete test
  • Operating reports and KPIs
  • Variance bridges that separate controllable from uncontrollable

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Chapters

After close, the real work begins

Financial close starts a long period of construction and then operations during which lenders, sponsors and authorities expect regular, accurate reporting. Poor reporting erodes trust and can itself breach information covenants.

Construction phase: drawdowns and cost to complete

During construction, funds are drawn in stages. Each drawdown request typically includes:

  • Costs incurred and forecast for the period, by category (EPC milestones, owner's costs, fees, interest).
  • Confirmation from the lenders' technical adviser that work is progressing and costs are appropriate.
  • A cost-to-complete test: remaining available funding (undrawn debt + remaining equity + contingency) must be at least the forecast cost to complete. If not, sponsors may need to inject more equity before further draws.
Funding sufficiency test (illustrative, USD M)
Forecast remaining costs to completion         152.0
Undrawn senior debt                            118.0
Remaining committed equity                      30.0
Remaining contingency (within uses)              9.0
Total available                                157.0
Headroom                                         5.0  → PASS (but tight)

Cost estimation and control during construction

The cost engineering disciplines from project controls apply directly:

  • Maintain an estimate at completion by cost category and compare with the uses in the financing plan.
  • Track EPC variations and claims; contractor claims can erode contingency quickly.
  • Monitor contingency drawdown against remaining risk.
  • Use earned value or milestone progress to confirm payments match work done.

The companion course Project Controls in the AI Era covers these techniques in depth.

Operations phase reporting

Typical periodic reports to lenders include:

ReportFrequency (typical)Content
Operating reportQuarterly or semi-annualAvailability, output, incidents, maintenance, HSE
Financial statementsSemi-annual / annual (audited)P&L, balance sheet, cash flow
Compliance certificateEach test dateDSCR, LLCR, reserves, covenant compliance
Budget and operating planAnnualNext year's opex, lifecycle and capex
Updated modelAnnual or on requestProjections using actuals and updated assumptions
Insurance reportAnnualRenewals and claims

Project financial KPIs

  • CFADS actual vs budget and vs lenders' base case.
  • Historic and projected DSCR; LLCR.
  • Opex per unit (per MWh, per bed, per km).
  • Availability and deductions.
  • Lifecycle spend vs plan and MRA balance.
  • Equity distributions and equity IRR to date vs plan.

Variance analysis for operating assets

Explain variances between actual and budget in structured buckets:

CFADS variance vs budget (illustrative, USD M)     −1.2
  Volume (lower wind resource)                      −0.9
  Price / indexation                                +0.2
  Availability (gearbox outage)                     −0.4
  Opex (higher insurance premium)                   −0.2
  Working capital timing                            +0.1

Separating uncontrollable (resource, indexation) from controllable (availability, opex) factors focuses management action.

Worked example: a funding shortfall averted

Illustrative. A fictional waste-to-energy plant in the UK found through monthly cost-to-complete reviews that EPC claims for ground conditions could exceed remaining contingency by about GBP 6M. Because the trend was identified four months before the next major drawdown, sponsors negotiated a partial settlement with the contractor and arranged a standby equity facility, and lenders agreed to continue funding. A late discovery could have halted drawdowns mid-construction.

Accounting perspectives

Project companies prepare statutory accounts under applicable standards (e.g., IFRS or US GAAP). Some items look different in accounts than in the model: capitalised interest during construction, depreciation, lease accounting, derivative (hedge) accounting, and, for certain concession arrangements under IFRS, specific treatment of the concession asset. Reconcile the model to the accounts periodically so both tell a consistent story.

Common mistakes

  • Drawdown requests unsupported by progress evidence.
  • Ignoring pending claims in cost to complete.
  • Late or inconsistent compliance certificates.
  • Variance explanations that do not separate controllable and uncontrollable factors.
  • Models not updated with actuals, drifting away from reality.

Quick self-check

Before issuing any lender report, check that figures reconcile to the locked model and the accounts, that variance explanations separate controllable and uncontrollable causes, and that any forecast deterioration is disclosed with the actions being taken. Lenders are generally far more tolerant of problems disclosed early with a plan than of surprises discovered in the next compliance certificate.

Building trust over time

Consistent formats, on-time delivery and honest commentary build credibility with lenders and authorities. That credibility is valuable later, when you need a waiver, a consent for a change, or support for a refinancing.

Hands-on: funding sufficiency and a variance bridge in Excel

Funding sufficiency (each drawdown)
Available      =Undrawn_debt+Remaining_equity+Remaining_contingency
Headroom       =Available-Forecast_cost_to_complete
Status         =IFS(Headroom<0,"FAIL: equity cure needed",Headroom<0.05*Forecast_cost_to_complete,"PASS (tight)",TRUE,"PASS")
Forecast cost to complete should include pending claims weighted by likelihood and any approved variations not yet paid.

CFADS variance bridge (quarter)
Volume          =(Actual_output-Budget_output)*Budget_price
Price/index     =(Actual_price-Budget_price)*Actual_output
Availability    =-Lost_output_due_to_outages*Actual_price      (if separated from volume)
Opex            =Budget_opex-Actual_opex
Working capital =Budget_WC_movement-Actual_WC_movement
Check           =Budget_CFADS+SUM(bridge)-Actual_CFADS         must be 0

Colour each bar by controllability (e.g. grey for resource and indexation, orange for availability and opex) in the waterfall chart (Insert > Waterfall in current Excel; Power BI has a native waterfall visual).

Template: quarterly lender report (one page)

1 KPIs: availability %, output vs P50/P90, CFADS vs budget and lenders' base case, opex per unit
2 Covenants: historic DSCR (lock-up/default), projected DSCR, LLCR, DSRA and MRA vs required, distributions
3 Variance bridge: budget → actual CFADS, coloured by controllability
4 Commentary (≤ 120 words): what happened, why, actions, owners, outlook
5 Reconciliation note: model version, accounts period, differences explained

How to measure success

  • Every drawdown request supported by adviser certification and a passing cost-to-complete test.
  • Compliance certificates delivered on time with no restatements.
  • Variance bridges reconcile exactly and separate controllable from uncontrollable causes.

Key takeaways

  • Drawdowns require evidence and a funding sufficiency (cost-to-complete) test.
  • Apply project controls: EAC by category, claims tracking and contingency vs risk.
  • Operating reports cover performance, financials, covenant compliance, budgets and updated models.
  • Explain CFADS variances by volume, price, availability, opex and timing, separating controllable factors.

Check your understanding

Quick questions to lock in the lesson. They don’t count towards your certificate.

  1. Forecast remaining costs are 90; undrawn debt 60, remaining equity 20, contingency 5. What does the funding sufficiency test show?
  2. Which item is typically included in a lenders' compliance certificate?
  3. Why separate volume, price, availability and opex in CFADS variance analysis?

Put it into practice

Create a one-page quarterly lender report template for an operating asset, including KPIs, covenant tests and a variance bridge.

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