Project Finance & Financial ModellingPPPs, concessions and reaching financial close · Lesson 17 of 20
Cost management and financial reporting after close
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Cost management and financial reporting after close
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0:00 After close, the real work begins
Financial close feels like the finish line. It isn't. It's the start of a relationship with lenders, sponsors and often a public authority that may last twenty-five years, and that relationship runs on reporting. Every drawdown during construction needs evidence. Every test date in operations needs a compliance certificate. Every surprise costs credibility you'll need later, for a waiver, a consent or a refinancing. In this lecture you'll learn how construction drawdowns and the cost-to-complete test work, how the project controls toolkit applies to a project-financed asset, what operating reports and KPIs lenders expect, how to build a variance bridge, and how accounting views differ from the model. By the end, you'll be able to design a one-page quarterly lender report.
0:53 Why it matters
Why does this matter? During construction, lenders will stop funding if remaining sources don't cover the forecast cost to complete. So cost control isn't just good practice; it's a condition of getting paid. In operations, reporting is an information covenant: late or inconsistent reports can themselves be a breach. And there's a softer, but very real, point. Lenders are generally far more tolerant of problems disclosed early with a plan than of surprises found in the next compliance certificate. Consistent formats, on-time delivery and honest commentary build credibility, and that credibility is what you spend when you need a waiver, a consent for a change, or support for a refinancing.
1:41 The concept: the cost-to-complete test
During construction, funds are drawn in stages. Each drawdown request typically includes costs incurred and forecast by category, confirmation from the lenders' technical adviser that work is progressing and costs are appropriate, and a cost-to-complete test. Think of the test as checking the petrol before a long drive. Total available funding, meaning undrawn senior debt plus remaining committed equity plus remaining contingency, must be at least the forecast cost to complete. In the lesson's illustrative example, forecast remaining costs are one hundred and fifty-two million. Undrawn debt is one hundred and eighteen, remaining equity thirty, and remaining contingency nine. Total available: one hundred and fifty-seven. Headroom: five million. It passes, but it's tight, and a tight pass is a warning, not a comfort. If the test fails, sponsors may need to inject more equity before further draws.
2:41 Worked example one: a funding shortfall averted
Here's a realistic example from the lesson. A fictional waste-to-energy plant in the UK ran monthly cost-to-complete reviews. They showed that EPC claims for ground conditions could exceed the remaining contingency by about six million pounds. Crucially, the trend was spotted four months before the next major drawdown. That lead time made all the difference. The sponsors negotiated a partial settlement with the contractor, arranged a standby equity facility, and lenders agreed to continue funding with the enhanced support in place. Now imagine the same claims discovered in the week of the drawdown request. The funding test fails, draws stop, the contractor slows down, and every option is more expensive. This is exactly where the project controls toolkit, estimate at completion, claims logs and contingency against risk exposure, pays for itself.
3:38 The operating report set and KPIs
Once the asset is operating, lenders typically expect a regular set of reports. An operating report, quarterly or semi-annually: availability, output, incidents, maintenance and health and safety. Financial statements, semi-annual and annual, audited. A compliance certificate at each test date, with DSCR, LLCR, reserves and covenant compliance. An annual budget and operating plan covering opex, lifecycle and capex. An updated model, annually or on request, rolling forward actuals and updated assumptions. And an annual insurance report on renewals and claims. Across all of them, a consistent set of KPIs: CFADS against budget and against the lenders' base case, historic and projected DSCR, LLCR, opex per unit of output, availability and deductions, lifecycle spend against plan and the MRA balance, and equity distributions to date against plan. Keep the formats consistent quarter after quarter, so trends are obvious at a glance.
4:39 Worked example two: a CFADS variance bridge
In operations, the key analytical tool is the variance bridge. Say CFADS for the quarter is one point two million below budget, illustratively. Break it into buckets. Volume, because of lower wind resource: minus nought point nine. Price and indexation: plus nought point two. Availability, because of a gearbox outage: minus nought point four. Opex, from a higher insurance premium: minus nought point two. Working capital timing: plus nought point one. They sum to minus one point two. Now the key idea. Colour them by controllability. Wind resource and indexation are largely outside management's control. Availability and opex are within it. A lender reading this bridge immediately sees that most of the shortfall was weather, and that the controllable part, the gearbox outage, has an owner and an action. That's a very different conversation from 'CFADS was down'.
5:39 Watch me do it: a one-page lender report
Let me show you the one-page quarterly lender report I'd build for an operating asset. At the top, a KPI strip: availability, output against both P50 and P90, CFADS against budget and against the lenders' base case, and opex per unit, per megawatt hour, per bed or per kilometre. Next, the covenant box: historic and projected DSCR against lock-up and default levels, LLCR, and reserve balances against required levels. Then the variance bridge, coloured by controllability. And finally, commentary: three or four sentences covering what happened, why, what's being done, and who owns it. Before it goes out, three checks: figures reconcile to the locked model and the accounts, variances separate controllable from uncontrollable causes, and any forecast deterioration is disclosed with the actions being taken.
6:34 Accounting views and common mistakes
One more thing that confuses people: the accounts don't look like the model. Project companies prepare statutory accounts under standards such as IFRS or US GAAP, and several items are treated differently: capitalised interest during construction, depreciation, lease accounting, hedge accounting and, for certain concession arrangements under IFRS, the concession asset itself. That's fine, as long as you reconcile the model to the accounts periodically so everyone understands the differences. The common mistakes: drawdown requests unsupported by progress evidence; ignoring pending claims in the cost to complete; late or inconsistent compliance certificates; variance explanations that don't separate controllable and uncontrollable factors; and models not updated with actuals, drifting away from reality.
7:22 Recap and try this now
Let's recap. After close, reporting becomes the heartbeat of the project. During construction, every drawdown depends on evidence and a cost-to-complete test, so apply controls disciplines: estimate at completion by category, a claims log, and contingency against risk exposure, with trends spotted months ahead. In operations, report KPIs against budget and the lenders' base case, test covenants on historic and projected ratios, and explain variances with a bridge that separates controllable from uncontrollable causes. Reconcile to the model and the accounts, and disclose problems early with a plan. Your try-this-now: create a one-page quarterly lender report template for an operating asset, with KPIs, covenant tests, a variance bridge and a short commentary section.
After close, the real work begins
Financial close starts a long period of construction and then operations during which lenders, sponsors and authorities expect regular, accurate reporting. Poor reporting erodes trust and can itself breach information covenants.
Construction phase: drawdowns and cost to complete
During construction, funds are drawn in stages. Each drawdown request typically includes:
- Costs incurred and forecast for the period, by category (EPC milestones, owner's costs, fees, interest).
- Confirmation from the lenders' technical adviser that work is progressing and costs are appropriate.
- A cost-to-complete test: remaining available funding (undrawn debt + remaining equity + contingency) must be at least the forecast cost to complete. If not, sponsors may need to inject more equity before further draws.
Funding sufficiency test (illustrative, USD M)
Forecast remaining costs to completion 152.0
Undrawn senior debt 118.0
Remaining committed equity 30.0
Remaining contingency (within uses) 9.0
Total available 157.0
Headroom 5.0 → PASS (but tight)Cost estimation and control during construction
The cost engineering disciplines from project controls apply directly:
- Maintain an estimate at completion by cost category and compare with the uses in the financing plan.
- Track EPC variations and claims; contractor claims can erode contingency quickly.
- Monitor contingency drawdown against remaining risk.
- Use earned value or milestone progress to confirm payments match work done.
The companion course Project Controls in the AI Era covers these techniques in depth.
Operations phase reporting
Typical periodic reports to lenders include:
| Report | Frequency (typical) | Content |
|---|---|---|
| Operating report | Quarterly or semi-annual | Availability, output, incidents, maintenance, HSE |
| Financial statements | Semi-annual / annual (audited) | P&L, balance sheet, cash flow |
| Compliance certificate | Each test date | DSCR, LLCR, reserves, covenant compliance |
| Budget and operating plan | Annual | Next year's opex, lifecycle and capex |
| Updated model | Annual or on request | Projections using actuals and updated assumptions |
| Insurance report | Annual | Renewals and claims |
Project financial KPIs
- CFADS actual vs budget and vs lenders' base case.
- Historic and projected DSCR; LLCR.
- Opex per unit (per MWh, per bed, per km).
- Availability and deductions.
- Lifecycle spend vs plan and MRA balance.
- Equity distributions and equity IRR to date vs plan.
Variance analysis for operating assets
Explain variances between actual and budget in structured buckets:
CFADS variance vs budget (illustrative, USD M) −1.2
Volume (lower wind resource) −0.9
Price / indexation +0.2
Availability (gearbox outage) −0.4
Opex (higher insurance premium) −0.2
Working capital timing +0.1Separating uncontrollable (resource, indexation) from controllable (availability, opex) factors focuses management action.
Worked example: a funding shortfall averted
Illustrative. A fictional waste-to-energy plant in the UK found through monthly cost-to-complete reviews that EPC claims for ground conditions could exceed remaining contingency by about GBP 6M. Because the trend was identified four months before the next major drawdown, sponsors negotiated a partial settlement with the contractor and arranged a standby equity facility, and lenders agreed to continue funding. A late discovery could have halted drawdowns mid-construction.
Accounting perspectives
Project companies prepare statutory accounts under applicable standards (e.g., IFRS or US GAAP). Some items look different in accounts than in the model: capitalised interest during construction, depreciation, lease accounting, derivative (hedge) accounting, and, for certain concession arrangements under IFRS, specific treatment of the concession asset. Reconcile the model to the accounts periodically so both tell a consistent story.
Common mistakes
- Drawdown requests unsupported by progress evidence.
- Ignoring pending claims in cost to complete.
- Late or inconsistent compliance certificates.
- Variance explanations that do not separate controllable and uncontrollable factors.
- Models not updated with actuals, drifting away from reality.
Quick self-check
Before issuing any lender report, check that figures reconcile to the locked model and the accounts, that variance explanations separate controllable and uncontrollable causes, and that any forecast deterioration is disclosed with the actions being taken. Lenders are generally far more tolerant of problems disclosed early with a plan than of surprises discovered in the next compliance certificate.
Building trust over time
Consistent formats, on-time delivery and honest commentary build credibility with lenders and authorities. That credibility is valuable later, when you need a waiver, a consent for a change, or support for a refinancing.
Hands-on: funding sufficiency and a variance bridge in Excel
Funding sufficiency (each drawdown)
Available =Undrawn_debt+Remaining_equity+Remaining_contingency
Headroom =Available-Forecast_cost_to_complete
Status =IFS(Headroom<0,"FAIL: equity cure needed",Headroom<0.05*Forecast_cost_to_complete,"PASS (tight)",TRUE,"PASS")
Forecast cost to complete should include pending claims weighted by likelihood and any approved variations not yet paid.
CFADS variance bridge (quarter)
Volume =(Actual_output-Budget_output)*Budget_price
Price/index =(Actual_price-Budget_price)*Actual_output
Availability =-Lost_output_due_to_outages*Actual_price (if separated from volume)
Opex =Budget_opex-Actual_opex
Working capital =Budget_WC_movement-Actual_WC_movement
Check =Budget_CFADS+SUM(bridge)-Actual_CFADS must be 0Colour each bar by controllability (e.g. grey for resource and indexation, orange for availability and opex) in the waterfall chart (Insert > Waterfall in current Excel; Power BI has a native waterfall visual).
Template: quarterly lender report (one page)
1 KPIs: availability %, output vs P50/P90, CFADS vs budget and lenders' base case, opex per unit
2 Covenants: historic DSCR (lock-up/default), projected DSCR, LLCR, DSRA and MRA vs required, distributions
3 Variance bridge: budget → actual CFADS, coloured by controllability
4 Commentary (≤ 120 words): what happened, why, actions, owners, outlook
5 Reconciliation note: model version, accounts period, differences explainedHow to measure success
- Every drawdown request supported by adviser certification and a passing cost-to-complete test.
- Compliance certificates delivered on time with no restatements.
- Variance bridges reconcile exactly and separate controllable from uncontrollable causes.
Key takeaways
- Drawdowns require evidence and a funding sufficiency (cost-to-complete) test.
- Apply project controls: EAC by category, claims tracking and contingency vs risk.
- Operating reports cover performance, financials, covenant compliance, budgets and updated models.
- Explain CFADS variances by volume, price, availability, opex and timing, separating controllable factors.
Check your understanding
Quick questions to lock in the lesson. They don’t count towards your certificate.
Put it into practice
Create a one-page quarterly lender report template for an operating asset, including KPIs, covenant tests and a variance bridge.
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